The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on twelve House races:
- NY-24: Likely D to Safe D
- OH-18: Likely D to Safe D
- AZ-01: Lean D to Likely D
- AZ-08: Lean D to Likely D
- KY-03: Lean D to Likely D
- FL-24: Tossup to Lean D
- NM-01: Tossup to Lean D
- OH-15: Tossup to Lean D
- CA-04: Lean R to Tossup
- FL-25: Lean R to Tossup
- ID-01: Lean R to Tossup
- FL-16: Lean R to Likely R
All of these moves except FL-16 are in favor of the Democrats. We are also adding IA-05, GA-06 and PA-12 to our “Races to Watch” list. Look for our writeups to follow soon. Our full race ratings chart is available here.
A progressive Democrat can win in GA-01 this year:
Jack’s on the run. He declined to debate on Georgia Public TV, leaving Bill Gillespie with 30 minutes of free state-wide airtime.
And GA-01 is cost-effective! Where else can you buy a TV spot for $25?
Oust Jack Kingston; elect Bill Gillespie!
Would it be possible to re-post SSP’s race ratings chart from 2006, just as a baseline for comparison?
sometimes only a wave can remove the most odious (weak nad stupid) GOPers from their perches – and i’m looking at you congressmen sali, bachmann and musgrave!
let me hear it crash against the shore on nov 4th!
in the likely R column than Lean R column (my hunch). I also think at least 16 at most 20 of the R seats in the tossup columns will flip. So my back of the hand calculation, gives me a net 30-32 seat pickup.
Cazayoux will win handily and I think Lampson will eke out a narrow victory cos he is a hometown boy who has kept a low non-partisan profile.
Kanjorski and Mahoney are goners (Murtha may be in trouble if he doesn’t apologize real quick, luckily for him he’s a long term incumbent and his opponent is a nobody).
Of the GOP toss ups, I honestly think only Kirk (IL, Reichert (WA) and maybe Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL)wins, the rest are lost…yes, it is that bad for the GOP.
I think IA-04 should be upgraded to lean R from likely R.
But I would say that!